What does the (affective) forecast say?

I applied my lip liner and one spritz of my favorite perfume — a gift I always give myself when I need encouragement to leave my home — as I looked in the mirror.

As I stared at my reflection, the voice inside my head noisily questioned, “Why do you always do this to yourself, dummy? You commit to things, and when the day comes, you never want to go!”

Mirrors always reveal truths about ourselves we don’t want to see.

Deciding whether I was going to enter a full-fledged internal debate (“First, I’m not a dummy! Second, this happens to everyone, so calm down.”), I ignored my brain’s distractions and grabbed my belongings.

As I walked out the door, I told my husband, “The event is three hours long, but I won’t stay the entire time!” Another expression of a difference of opinion between past me, who committed to attending, and the current dread-filled version of me with regret.

I drove only two to three miles per hour above the speed limit the entire way to my destination to drag out the process further. Upon arrival, I threw my car into park, popped a piece of gum in my mouth, pretended it was necessary to check my email — ahem — procrastinated, and finally mustered up the courage to go inside.

And when I did, all the negative thoughts vanished. My shoulders and jaw relaxed. A natural smile painted my face. Nervousness immediately transformed into excitement as I reconnected with friends old and new.

And over the course of the three-hour-long event, guess how many times I looked for a clock so I could plan my escape route?

Exactly zero. I stayed until the end, and the hours passed so quickly that by the time I returned to my car, I only wished we had more of them.

Come to find out, I’m bad at affective forecasting, and you probably are too.

Affective forecasting is the prediction of our future emotional state in terms of intensity, duration, and value (positive/negative). There’s a lot of room for error. We are notoriously bad at predicting how we will feel in the future.

When an event is far away, I believe future me will be as excited as I am when I commit. And then it’s not uncommon for me to overestimate how [boring/uninteresting/draining/uncomfortable/anxiety-inducing] the event will be, only to have the time of my life most of the time. (Related: read more about impact bias.)

We can’t eliminate affective forecasting errors, but there are things we can do to loosen its grip and enjoy ourselves:

• Remind yourself that we all suck at affective forecasting. This is normal! You are not alone! But there’s a good reason a past version of you committed to doing this thing, so remember that.

• Tell yourself you can’t decide how you feel about the event until you actually experience it. Maybe the event really will be [insert negative adjective here], but give it a chance. Resist forming an opinion until you are present in the moment.

• Get really damn good at knowing what experiences you enjoy. There’s a balance here between knowing yourself and staying open-minded, but you don’t have to say “yes” to things that you know aren’t a fit for you. And you don’t have to like everything, either. The more you know who you are, what you care about, and what you value, the easier it is to commit to events and experiences you are more likely to enjoy.

We are not flawed for misreading our future feelings. Our minds don’t always skew in our favor in accurately predicting joy, satisfaction, and pleasant emotions. When we accept the limits of our emotional foresight with humility rather than self-criticism, we permit ourselves to lean into the duality of our feelings. And often, on the other side of that reluctance, we find a world filled with enjoyment, presence, fun, meaning, and the realization that we are likely exactly where we need to be.

And when in doubt, I always remember a piece of advice my Papa shared with me as he prepared for something work-related he was nervous about: Nothing is ever as bad as it seems in our minds. So far, Papa has always been right 🧡

Time well spent: weekly roundup

• I met Alex Dobrenko, writer of Both Are True, through Lex Roman’s Legends community subscription last year. You know I love writers who are raw, relatable, and funny (I wish I were funnier?!), and Alex is these things. I loved his recent piece: do i secretly love all the things i hate?

• I’m currently reading Briefly Perfectly Human*, a beautifully written and emotionally raw memoir by a lawyer-turned-widely known death doula, Alua Arthur. Arthur’s life story, death doula work (Going with Grace), and insight into living an authentic and fulfilling life are truly transformative.

• Swap your doomscrolling for this bright and interactive read: 24 Simple Secrets to a Healthier Life. The last tip is, unsurprisingly, one of my favorites.

Your next intentional move

• How might embracing your contradictions help you understand yourself more honestly?

• How might embracing both the beauty and fragility of life help you show up more authentically?

• What kinds of content leave you feeling lighter, calmer, or more hopeful?

Check out the full list of intentional prompts and share it with someone you love!

I’m Alyssa Towns, and this is Time Intentional, a newsletter exploring what it means to spend our limited (and precious) time intentionally. Extend your love and support by sharing this newsletter with someone you know, or buy me a coffee! ☕

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